Dr Yi Zou is a Lecturer at Department of Health and Environmental Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University. He received his Ph.D. from University College London, and worked as postdoctoral researcher at Wageningen University in the Netherlands. He was awarded as the “Jiangsu Province Innovation & Entrepreneurship Talent Program” and “Outstanding Educator of Suzhou”. His research interests include landscape ecology, biodiversity, insect pollination and biological control services. He is teaching Research Design, Global Change Ecology courses.
1. AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF THE DISEASE, YOU HAVE QUICKLY ASSEMBLED A TEAM, BUILT A WEBSITE, POSTED THE PREDICTION CHARTS ONLINE AND MADE THE RAW DATA OPEN FOR PUBLIC. SO WHAT IS THE ORIGINAL INTENTION OF THIS ACTION?
There are numerous news and resources about the novel coronavirus. Sometimes it is difficult for public to pick up the key information, and to distinguish rumours.
We created the website to provide open access data for scientists, journalists and other researchers to access, as well as daily statistical modelling.
In the Chinese version of the website, we also provided evidence-based answers to myths and rumours. All these information are obtained automatically from government websites and public medias and updated every half an hour.
We hope that through the integration of information, public can quickly get latest news about the infection situation at different regions and distinguish rumours,while scientists can use the data to conduct other analysis. The website has received more than 200,000 visits, we hope this website can provide more people with data sharing and fight the epidemic together.
2. WHAT IS THE MECHANISM AND PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL, AND WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR THAT BRINGING THE DISEASE UNDER CONTROL?
The basic assumption is that the growing of the infection fits the logistic regression model, which is commonly used for population dynamics and epidemiological analysis.
This means, there will be an asymptotic value for the total number of infected people. The curve looks like a stretched version of the letter ‘S.’, where the top of the curve indicates the maximum number of cases.
Time trends and model predictions of confirmed cases across the coutnry
While the model does not judge factors that influence the current infectious situation, apparently to some extent to restrict people from gathering together is an effective approach.
3. IS THE TREND OF THE EPIDEMIC IN THESE DAYS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED RESULTS OF THE MODEL? AND WHY?
The model indicates that active infections in China was declining since the 12th February. So far the current situation still fits the model well. As you may notice from official reports, each day more people get cured than infected, and many provinces have reported no new infection case. This is a good sign, which indicates that the current situation is under control.
However, a mathematical model is not a direct window to the future. There were many factors that could influence the model. For example, if factors that affect the trend change or if the data on current cases is underreported, then the model’s indications will not be accurate.
4. DISEASE EXPERTS MENTIONED THAT THIS OUTBREAK ORIGINATED FROM THE FACT THAT THE VIRUS CROSSED THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN ANIMALS AND HUMANS. AS AN EXPERT ON BIODIVERSITY, WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HUMANS AND NATURE? IS IT POSSIBLE THAT WE NOT CROSS BOUNDARIES AND LIVE IN HARMONY?
We human beings as a part of the nature, belong to the ecosystem. While ecosystem as a whole, its networks are elaborately maintaining its balance. And biodiversity is the intrinsic unit of these networks.
Each species has its unique role in the system; they may fight with each other, but also restrict each other from outbreaks, and provide complementarity functions for each other. 。
We have to admit that humans are a very successful species. We benefited from ecosystem services. Sometimes we remove resources faster than replace them. However, we have to be very careful not to break the ecological balance. It is important to conserve biodiversity, to respect the nature, and live harmoniously with other creatures.
GUEST
DR YI ZOU
Dr Yi Zou is a Lecturer at Department of Health and Environmental Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University. He received his Ph.D. from University College London, and worked as postdoctoral researcher at Wageningen University in the Netherlands. He was awarded as the “Jiangsu Province Innovation & Entrepreneurship Talent Program” and “Outstanding Educator of Suzhou”. His research interests include landscape ecology, biodiversity, insect pollination and biological control services. He is teaching Research Design, Global Change Ecology courses.
1. AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF THE DISEASE, YOU HAVE QUICKLY ASSEMBLED A TEAM, BUILT A WEBSITE, POSTED THE PREDICTION CHARTS ONLINE AND MADE THE RAW DATA OPEN FOR PUBLIC. SO WHAT IS THE ORIGINAL INTENTION OF THIS ACTION?
There are numerous news and resources about the novel coronavirus. Sometimes it is difficult for public to pick up the key information, and to distinguish rumours.
We created the website to provide open access data for scientists, journalists and other researchers to access, as well as daily statistical modelling.
In the Chinese version of the website, we also provided evidence-based answers to myths and rumours. All these information are obtained automatically from government websites and public medias and updated every half an hour.
We hope that through the integration of information, public can quickly get latest news about the infection situation at different regions and distinguish rumours,while scientists can use the data to conduct other analysis. The website has received more than 200,000 visits, we hope this website can provide more people with data sharing and fight the epidemic together.
2. WHAT IS THE MECHANISM AND PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL, AND WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR THAT BRINGING THE DISEASE UNDER CONTROL?
The basic assumption is that the growing of the infection fits the logistic regression model, which is commonly used for population dynamics and epidemiological analysis.
This means, there will be an asymptotic value for the total number of infected people. The curve looks like a stretched version of the letter ‘S.’, where the top of the curve indicates the maximum number of cases.
Time trends and model predictions of confirmed cases across the coutnry
Reference：https://www.xjtlu.edu.cn/zh/news/2020/02/moxingxianshimuqianzhongguoxinguanbingduganranchengxiajiangqushi
While the model does not judge factors that influence the current infectious situation, apparently to some extent to restrict people from gathering together is an effective approach.
3. IS THE TREND OF THE EPIDEMIC IN THESE DAYS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED RESULTS OF THE MODEL? AND WHY?
The model indicates that active infections in China was declining since the 12th February. So far the current situation still fits the model well. As you may notice from official reports, each day more people get cured than infected, and many provinces have reported no new infection case. This is a good sign, which indicates that the current situation is under control.
However, a mathematical model is not a direct window to the future. There were many factors that could influence the model. For example, if factors that affect the trend change or if the data on current cases is underreported, then the model’s indications will not be accurate.
4. DISEASE EXPERTS MENTIONED THAT THIS OUTBREAK ORIGINATED FROM THE FACT THAT THE VIRUS CROSSED THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN ANIMALS AND HUMANS. AS AN EXPERT ON BIODIVERSITY, WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HUMANS AND NATURE? IS IT POSSIBLE THAT WE NOT CROSS BOUNDARIES AND LIVE IN HARMONY?
We human beings as a part of the nature, belong to the ecosystem. While ecosystem as a whole, its networks are elaborately maintaining its balance. And biodiversity is the intrinsic unit of these networks.
Each species has its unique role in the system; they may fight with each other, but also restrict each other from outbreaks, and provide complementarity functions for each other. 。
We have to admit that humans are a very successful species. We benefited from ecosystem services. Sometimes we remove resources faster than replace them. However, we have to be very careful not to break the ecological balance. It is important to conserve biodiversity, to respect the nature, and live harmoniously with other creatures.